The global economy could withstand widespread disruption from a natural disaster or attack by militants for a week. Events such as the 2010 volcanic ash cloud, Japan’s earthquake and tsunami and Thailand’s floods 2011, have showed that key sectors and businesses can be severely affected if disruption to production or transport goes on for more than a week.
Up to 30 percent of developed countries’ gross domestic product could be directly threatened by crises, especially in the manufacturing and tourism sectors.The 2010 volcanic ash cloud cost the European Union 5-10 billion euros and pushed some airlines and travel companies to the verge of bankruptcy.
Lee, B., Preston, F., & Green, G. (2012). Preparing for High-impact,Low-probability Events. Lessons from Eyjafjallajökull. A Chatham House Report. London: The Royal Institute of International Affairs.